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Natural hazards in Australia: floods

Johnson, Fiona, White, Christopher J., van Dijk, Albert, Ekstrom, Marie, Evans, Jason P., Jakob, Dorte, Kiem, Anthony S., Leonard, Michael, Rouillard, Alexandra and Westra, Seth 2016. Natural hazards in Australia: floods. Climatic Change 139 (1) , pp. 21-35. 10.1007/s10584-016-1689-y

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Abstract

Floods are caused by a number of interacting factors, making it remarkably difficult to explain changes in flood hazard. This paper reviews the current understanding of historical trends and variability in flood hazard across Australia. Links between flood and rainfall trends cannot be made due to the influence of climate processes over a number of spatial and temporal scales as well as landscape changes that affect the catchment response. There are also still considerable uncertainties in future rainfall projections, particularly for sub-daily extreme rainfall events. This is in addition to the inherent uncertainty in hydrological modelling such as antecedent conditions and feedback mechanisms. Research questions are posed based on the current state of knowledge. These include a need for high-resolution climate modelling studies and efforts in compiling and analysing databases of sub-daily rainfall and flood records. Finally there is a need to develop modelling frameworks that can deal with the interaction between climate processes at different spatio-temporal scales, so that historical flood trends can be better explained and future flood behaviour understood. This article is part of a Special Issue on “The effect of historical and future climate changes on natural hazards in Australia” edited by Seth Westra, Chris White and Anthony Kiem.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Earth and Ocean Sciences
Publisher: Springer Verlag
ISSN: 0165-0009
Date of Acceptance: 26 April 2016
Last Modified: 16 Oct 2017 10:09
URI: http://orca.cf.ac.uk/id/eprint/105541

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