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A Bayesian forecasting model of interstate conflict

Williford, George W. and Atkinson, Douglas B. 2019. A Bayesian forecasting model of interstate conflict. Journal of Defense Modeling and Simulation 10.1177/1548512919827659

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Scholars and practitioners in international relations have a strong interest in forecasting international conflict. However, due to the complexity of forecasting rare events, existing attempts to predict the onset of international conflict in a cross-national setting have generally had low rates of success. In this paper, we apply Bayesian methods to develop a forecasting model designed to predict the onset of international conflict at the yearly level. We find that this model performs substantially better at producing accurate predictions both in and out of sample.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Published Online
Status: In Press
Schools: Department of Politics and International Relations (POLIR)
Publisher: SAGE Publications
ISSN: 1548-5129
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 5 February 2019
Date of Acceptance: 27 October 2018
Last Modified: 01 Jul 2019 05:09

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