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Devolving fiscal policy: Migration and tax yields

Foreman-Peck, James and Zhou, Peng 2019. Devolving fiscal policy: Migration and tax yields. Regional Studies 10.1080/00343404.2019.1602256
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Abstract

Devolution of taxes to sub-national jurisdictions could reduce expected tax revenue if some households move to lower tax regimes, constraining devolved government policy. This paper develops an indirect approach to establishing lower bound revenue impacts of possible devolved tax changes by allowing for tax-induced migration. The results suggest that limited tax devolution, such as conferred on Wales by the UK 2014 Act, could trigger substantial tax revenue and gross value added (GVA) spillovers from migration on the devolved economy. The prospect may have, and perhaps should have, discouraged decentralization of taxation to the same extent as decentralization of spending in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Publication
Status: In Press
Schools: Business (Including Economics)
Publisher: Taylor & Francis
ISSN: 0034-3404
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 5 June 2019
Date of Acceptance: 14 March 2019
Last Modified: 18 Oct 2019 16:52
URI: http://orca.cf.ac.uk/id/eprint/121221

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