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Economic-demographic interactions in the European long run growth

Foreman-Peck, James 2019. Economic-demographic interactions in the European long run growth. In: Diebolt, Claude and Haupert, Michael eds. Handbook of Cliometrics, Springer, pp. 1-25. (10.1007/978-3-642-40458-0_17-2)

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Abstract

Cliometrics confirms that Malthus’s model of the preindustrial economy is a good description for much of demographic-economic history; increases in productivity raise population, but higher population drives down wages. A contributor to the Malthusian equilibrium was the Western European marriage pattern, the late age of female first marriage, which promised to retard the fall of living standards by restricting fertility. The demographic transition and the transition from Malthusian economies to modern economic growth attracted many cliometric models surveyed here. A popular model component is that lower levels of mortality over many centuries increased the returns to, or preference for, human capital investment so that technical progress eventually accelerated. This initially boosted birth rates and population growth accelerated. Fertility decline was earliest and most striking in late-eighteenth-century France. By the 1830s, the fall in French marital fertility is consistent with a response to the rising opportunity cost of children. The rest of Europe did not begin to follow until near the end of the nineteenth century. Interactions between the economy and migration, mainly focused on the long nineteenth century, have been modeled with cliometric structures closely related to those of natural increase and the economy. Wages were driven up by emigration from Europe and reduced in the economies receiving immigrants.

Item Type: Book Section
Date Type: Published Online
Status: Published
Schools: Business (Including Economics)
Publisher: Springer
ISBN: 9783030001827
Last Modified: 08 Oct 2019 10:04
URI: http://orca.cf.ac.uk/id/eprint/121373

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