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Clinical risk prediction scores in coronavirus disease 2019: beware of low validity and clinical utility

Al Hassan, Haamed, Cocks, Eve, Jesani, Lara, Lewis, Sally and Szakmany, Tamas 2020. Clinical risk prediction scores in coronavirus disease 2019: beware of low validity and clinical utility. Critical Care Explorations 2 (10) , e0253. 10.1097/CCE.0000000000000253

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Abstract

Several risk stratification tools were developed to predict disease progression in coronavirus disease 2019, with no external validation to date. We attempted to validate three previously published risk-stratification tools in a multicenter study. Primary outcome was a composite outcome of development of severe coronavirus disease 2019 disease leading to ICU admission or death censored at hospital discharge or 30 days. We collected data from 169 patients. Patients were 73 years old (59–82 yr old), 66 of 169 (39.1%) were female, 57 (33.7%) had one comorbidity, and 80 (47.3%) had two or more comorbidities. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (95% CI) for the COVID-GRAM score was 0.636 (0.550–0.722), for the CALL score 0.500 (0.411–0.589), and for the nomogram 0.628 (0.543–0.714).

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Biosciences
Medicine
ISSN: 2639-8028
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 28 October 2020
Date of Acceptance: 17 September 2020
Last Modified: 29 Oct 2020 09:45
URI: http://orca.cf.ac.uk/id/eprint/135992

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