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Spatial dynamics of Chinese Muntjac related to past and future climate fluctuations

Sun, Zhonglou, Orozco Ter Wengel, Pablo, Chen, Guotao, Sun, Ruolei, Sun, Lu, Wang, Hui, Shi, Wenbo and Zhang, Baowei 2021. Spatial dynamics of Chinese Muntjac related to past and future climate fluctuations. Current Zoology 10.1093/cz/zoaa080

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Climate fluctuations in the past and in the future are likely to result in population expansions, shifts, or the contraction of the ecological niche of many species, and potentially leading to the changes in their geographical distributions. Prediction of suitable habitats has been developed as a useful tool for the assessment of habitat suitability and resource conservation to protect wildlife. Here, we model the ancestral demographic history of the extant modern Chinese Muntjac Muntiacus reevesi populations using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) and used the maximum entropy model to simulate the past and predict the future spatial dynamics of the species under climate oscillations. Our results indicated that the suitable habitats for the M. reevesi shifted to the Southeast and contracted during the Last Glacial Maximum, whereas they covered a broader and more northern position in the Middle Holocene. The ABC analyses revealed that the modern M. reevesi populations diverged in the Middle Holocene coinciding with the significant contraction of the highly suitable habitat areas. Furthermore, our predictions suggest that the potentially suitable environment distribution for the species will expand under all future climate scenarios. These results indicated that the M. reevesi diverged in the recent time after the glacial period and simultaneously as its habitat’s expanded in the Middle Holocene. Furthermore, the past and future climate fluctuation triggered the change of Chinese muntjac spatial distribution, which has great influence on the Chinese muntjac’s population demographic history.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Published Online
Status: In Press
Schools: Biosciences
Additional Information: The authors contributed equally to this work.
Publisher: Oxford University Press (OUP)
ISSN: 1674-5507
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 12 January 2021
Date of Acceptance: 16 December 2020
Last Modified: 24 Feb 2021 11:21

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