What the geological past can tell us about the future of the ocean’s twilight zone

Crichton, Katherine A., Wilson, Jamie D., Ridgwell, Andy, Boscolo-Galazzo, Flavia, John, Eleanor, Wade, Bridget S. and Pearson, Paul N. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4628-9818 2023. What the geological past can tell us about the future of the ocean’s twilight zone. Nature Communications 14 (1) , 2376. 10.1038/s41467-023-37781-6

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Abstract

Paleontological reconstructions of plankton community structure during warm periods of the Cenozoic (last 66 million years) reveal that deep-dwelling ‘twilight zone’ (200–1000 m) plankton were less abundant and diverse, and lived much closer to the surface, than in colder, more recent climates. We suggest that this is a consequence of temperature’s role in controlling the rate that sinking organic matter is broken down and metabolized by bacteria, a process that occurs faster at warmer temperatures. In a warmer ocean, a smaller fraction of organic matter reaches the ocean interior, affecting food supply and dissolved oxygen availability at depth. Using an Earth system model that has been evaluated against paleo observations, we illustrate how anthropogenic warming may impact future carbon cycling and twilight zone ecology. Our findings suggest that significant changes are already underway, and without strong emissions mitigation, widespread ecological disruption in the twilight zone is likely by 2100, with effects spanning millennia thereafter.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Published Online
Status:	Published
Schools:	Earth and Environmental Sciences
Additional Information:	License information from Publisher: LICENSE 1: URL: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/, Type: open-access
Publisher:	Nature Research
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	28 April 2023
Date of Acceptance:	30 March 2023
Last Modified:	11 Oct 2023 17:36
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/159099

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