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Modelling Socio-Technical Transition Patterns and Pathways

Bergman, N., Haxeltine, A., Whitmarsh, Lorraine E., Köhler, J., Schilperoord, M. and Rotmans, J. 2008. Modelling Socio-Technical Transition Patterns and Pathways. JASSS - The Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation 11 (3) , 7.

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Abstract

We report on research that is developing a simulation model for assessing systemic innovations, or 'transitions', of societal systems towards a more sustainable development. Our overall aim is to outline design principles for models that can offer new insights into tackling persistent problems in large-scale systems, such as the European road transport system or the regional management of water resources. The systemic nature of these problems is associated with them being complex, uncertain and cutting across a number of sectors, and indicates a need for radical technological and behavioural solutions that address changes at the systems level rather than offering incremental changes within sub-systems. Model design is inspired by recent research into transitions, an emerging paradigm which provides a framework for tackling persistent problems. We use concepts from the literature on transitions to develop a prototype of a generic 'transition model'. Our prototype aims to capture different types of transition pathways, using historical examples such as the transition from horse-drawn carriages to cars or that from sailing ships to steam ships. The model combines agent-based modelling techniques and system dynamics, and includes interactions of individual agents and sub-systems, as well as cumulative effects on system structures. We show success in simulating different historical transition pathways by adapting the model's parameters and rules for each example. Finally, we discuss the improvements necessary for systematically exploring and detailing transition pathways in empirical case-study applications to current and future transitions such as the transition to a sustainable transport system in Europe.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Psychology
Subjects: B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology
H Social Sciences > HT Communities. Classes. Races
Q Science > QA Mathematics > QA75 Electronic computers. Computer science
Uncontrolled Keywords: Complex Systems, Agent-Based Modelling, Social Simulation, Transitions, Transition Theory
Publisher: JASSS
ISSN: 1460-7425
Last Modified: 04 Jun 2017 03:55
URI: http://orca.cf.ac.uk/id/eprint/29005

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