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A transitions model for sustainable mobility

Köhler, Jonathan, Whitmarsh, Lorraine E., Nykvist, Björn, Schilperoord, Michel, Bergman, Noam and Haxeltine, Alex 2009. A transitions model for sustainable mobility. Ecological Economics 68 (12) , pp. 2985-2995. 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2009.06.027

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Abstract

This paper reports on the development of amodel for assessing transitions to sustainablemobility. The model uses the concepts of transition theory as a framework for assessing possible pathways by which atransition to asustainablemobility society might happen. The modelling approach combines agent-based modelling techniques with a system dynamics structure. It is original in that there are two levels of agent. There are a small number of complex agents, which have an internal structure and are therefore subsystems within society, and a larger number of simple agents. Based on the UK data, the results show that Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (FCVs) come to dominate, but only in the very long run (after 2030), while biofuels and ICE (Internal Combustion Engine)-electric hybrids are the main alternatives to the regime in the next 10–30 years, because a) they are already developed and b) they fit better into current infrastructures. The model shows that technological transitions are most likely. Lifestyle change transitions require sustained pressure from the environment on society and behavioural change from consumers.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Psychology
Subjects: B Philosophy. Psychology. Religion > BF Psychology
T Technology > TD Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering
Uncontrolled Keywords: Sustainable mobility; Transition theory; Agent-based model
Publisher: Elsevier
ISSN: 0921-8009
Last Modified: 04 Jun 2017 03:55
URI: http://orca.cf.ac.uk/id/eprint/29007

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