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Using singular spectrum analysis to obtain staffing level requirements in emergency units

Gillard, Jonathan William and Knight, Vincent Anthony 2014. Using singular spectrum analysis to obtain staffing level requirements in emergency units. Journal of the Operational Research Society 65 (5) , pp. 735-746. 10.1057/jors.2013.41

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Abstract

Many operational research (OR) techniques use historical data to populate model input parameters. Although the majority of these models take into account stochastic variation of the inputs, they do not necessarily take into account seasonal variations and other stochastic effects that might arise. One of the major applications of OR lies within healthcare, where ever increasing pressure on healthcare systems is having major implications on those who plan the provision of such services. Coping with growing demand for healthcare, as well as the volatile nature of the number of arrivals at a healthcare facility makes modelling healthcare provision one of the most challenging fields of OR. This paper proposes the use of a relatively modern time series technique, Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA), to improve existing algorithms that give required staffing levels. The methodology is demonstrated using data from a large teaching hospital's emergency unit. Using time dependent queueing theory, as well as SSA, staffing levels are obtained. The performance of our technique is analysed using a weighted mean square error measure, introduced in this paper.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Mathematics
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Uncontrolled Keywords: Singular Spectrum Analysis; time dependent queueing theory; staffing; healthcare
Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan
ISSN: 0160-5682
Last Modified: 28 Jun 2019 12:14
URI: http://orca.cf.ac.uk/id/eprint/33198

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