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Ensemble modelling of tides, surge and waves

Chen, Yongping, Pan, Shunqi, Hewston, Richard, Cluckie, Ian and Wolf, Judith 2010. Ensemble modelling of tides, surge and waves. Presented at: 20th International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, Beijing, China, 20-25 June 2101. Published in: Chung, Jin S., Dias, Frederic, Kuo, Jui-Fang and Ma, Qingwei eds. Proceedings of the Twentieth (2010) International Offshore and Polar Engineering Conference, Beijing, China, 20-25 June 2010. Cupertino, CA, USA: International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers (ISOPE), pp. 828-833.

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Abstract

This study aims to use a generically integrated meteorological and hydrodynamic ensemble modelling system to quantitatively assess the effect of uncertainties arising from the numerical weather prediction (NWP) on the tide, surge and wave forecasts. The modelling system was applied to the English and Bristol Channels for the storm events occurred between 25th and 30th October 2004. The model results show that the accuracy of the predicted surge and waves can be considerably improved by the ensemble approach, particularly in predicting the storm peaks, when short-term predictions (T+2 day) are used.

Item Type: Conference or Workshop Item (Paper)
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Engineering
Subjects: T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
T Technology > TC Hydraulic engineering. Ocean engineering
Uncontrolled Keywords: Ensemble predictions; uncertainty; tide, surge and wave modelling; English and Bristol Channels; storm events; POLCOMS; ECMWF EPS
Publisher: International Society of Offshore and Polar Engineers (ISOPE)
ISBN: 9781880653777
Related URLs:
Last Modified: 04 Jun 2017 04:13
URI: http://orca.cf.ac.uk/id/eprint/34878

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