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Probability problems in knowledge acquisition for expert systems

Doyle, John R. 1988. Probability problems in knowledge acquisition for expert systems. Knowledge-Based Systems 1 (2) , pp. 114-120. 10.1016/0950-7051(88)90006-8

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Abstract

The quality of an expert system, it is argued in this paper, is determined by the quality of its knowledge base. Many expert systems allow the use of uncertainty values. However, people have been found to be consistently susceptible to cognitive biases in estimating and manipulating probability values. Experts are no exception. This paper examines the factors which accentuate or modify these biases. The quality of any knowledge base which uses uncertainty values may be improved by attending to the problems outlined.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Business (Including Economics)
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor
Q Science > QA Mathematics
Uncontrolled Keywords: expert systems; knowledge acquisition; probability values; knowledge base; expert; corrective action
Publisher: Elsevier
ISSN: 0950-7051
Last Modified: 04 Jun 2017 04:23
URI: http://orca.cf.ac.uk/id/eprint/38049

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