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Term spread and real economic activity in Korea: was the crisis predictable?

Paya, I. and Matthews, Kent Gerard Patrick 2004. Term spread and real economic activity in Korea: was the crisis predictable? Applied Economics Letters 11 (13) , pp. 797-801. 10.1080/1350485042000254908

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Abstract

This paper has three objectives. First, it examines the link between the term spread (difference between long-term and short-term rate of interest) and GDP growth in the Korean economy for the period 1980–1999. Second, it tests for the independent information content of the term spread by including current and expected monetary policy indicators. Third, it explores the usefulness of the spread as a leading indicator of recessions and poses the question, was the crisis of 1997–1998 predictable?

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Business (Including Economics)
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HC Economic History and Conditions
Publisher: Routledge
ISSN: 1350-4851
Last Modified: 04 Jun 2017 04:24
URI: http://orca.cf.ac.uk/id/eprint/38372

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