An engineering approach to LSE modelling of experience curves in the electricity supply industry

Naim, Mohamed Mohamed ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3361-9400 and Towill, Denis Royston 1990. An engineering approach to LSE modelling of experience curves in the electricity supply industry. International Journal of Forecasting 6 (4) , pp. 549-556. 10.1016/0169-2070(90)90033-8

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Abstract

This review is a supplement to the paper by Sharp and Price (1990) and should be regarded as an alternative engineering approach to the modelling and forecasting of experience, or learning, curves. It highlights the problems associated with accurately defining a model to time series that show a combination of a continuous trend and a cyclical component, as detected by the authors in the Sharp and Price data. The authors give a number of alternative perspectives of the same time series, in this case average thermal efficiency data from the U.K. electricity supply industry, with the corresponding conclusions associated with each approach. Particular attention is drawn to the use of the “time constant learning curve” quoted by Sharp and Price which the authors show is a reasonable predictor of the average thermal efficiency. However, a tremendous improvement results from selecting the “ripple” model as a thermal efficiency predictor.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Business (Including Economics) Engineering
Subjects:	H Social Sciences > HD Industries. Land use. Labor H Social Sciences > HF Commerce T Technology > T Technology (General)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Learning curves; Modelling; Forecasting; Systems engineering approach
Publisher:	Elsevier
ISSN:	0169-2070
Last Modified:	21 Oct 2022 10:32
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/40490

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