The projected health care burden of Type 2 diabetes in the UK from 2000 to 2060

Bagust, A., Hopkinson, P. K., Maslove, L. and Currie, Craig John 2002. The projected health care burden of Type 2 diabetes in the UK from 2000 to 2060. Diabetic Medicine 19 (s4) , pp. 1-5. 10.1046/j.1464-5491.19.s4.2.x

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Abstract

Aims/hypothesis: To predict the incidence and prevalence of Type 2 diabetes in the UK, the trends in the levels of diabetes-related complications, and the associated health care costs for the period 2000–60. Methods: An established epidemiological and economic model of the long-term complications and health care costs of Type 2 diabetes was applied to UK population projections from 2000 to 2060. The model was used to calculate the incidence and prevalence of Type 2 diabetes, the caseloads and population burden for diabetes-related complications, and annual NHS health care costs for Type 2 diabetes over this time period. Results: The total UK population will not increase by more than 3% at any time in the next 60 years. However, the population over 30 will increase by a maximum of 11% by 2030. Due to population ageing, in 2036 there will be approximately 20% more cases of Type 2 diabetes than in 2000. Cases of diabetes-related complications will increase rapidly to peak 20−30% above present levels between 2035 and 2045, before showing a modest decline. The cost of health care for patients with Type 2 diabetes rises by up to 25% during this period, but because of reductions in the economically active age groups, the relative economic burden of the disease can be expected to increase by 40−50%. Conclusion/interpretation: In the next 30 years Type 2 diabetes will present a serious clinical and financial challenge to the UK NHS.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Medicine
Subjects:	R Medicine > R Medicine (General)
Uncontrolled Keywords:	economics; epidemiology; health care costs; modelling; Type 2 diabetes
Publisher:	Wiley
ISSN:	0742-3071
Last Modified:	04 Jun 2017 06:37
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/62974

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