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Mathematical modelling of patient flows to predict critical care capacity required following the merger of two district general hospitals into one

Williams, J., Dumont, S., Parry-Jones, J., Komenda, Izabela, Griffiths, Jeffrey Deacon and Knight, Vincent Anthony 2015. Mathematical modelling of patient flows to predict critical care capacity required following the merger of two district general hospitals into one. Anaesthesia 70 (1) , pp. 32-40. 10.1111/anae.12839

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Abstract

There is both medical and political drive to centralise secondary services in larger hospitals throughout the National Health Service. High-volume services in some areas of care have been shown to achieve better outcomes and efficiencies arising from economies of scale. We sought to produce a mathematical model using the historical critical care demand in two District General Hospitals to determine objectively the requisite critical care capacity in a newly built hospital. We also sought to determine how well the new single unit would be able to meet changes in demand. The intention is that the model should be generic and transferable for those looking to merge and rationalise services on to one site. One of the advantages of mathematical modelling is the ability to interrogate the model to investigate any number of different scenarios; some of these are presented.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Mathematics
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Additional Information: Early View (Online Version of Record published before inclusion in an issue)
Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell
ISSN: 0003-2409
Date of Acceptance: 1 August 2014
Last Modified: 14 Mar 2019 10:54
URI: http://orca.cf.ac.uk/id/eprint/65941

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