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Urban scale modelling of traffic and cycling flow using spatial analysis and an assessment of factors that influence cyclist behaviour

Patterson, Joanne Louise 2014. Urban scale modelling of traffic and cycling flow using spatial analysis and an assessment of factors that influence cyclist behaviour. PhD Thesis, Cardiff University.
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Abstract

To understand and facilitate modal shift to more sustainable modes of transport there is a need to model accessibility and connectivity at an urban scale using data collection and modelling procedures that require less data and specialist input than traditional transport models. This research has used spatial analysis modelling procedures based on space syntax to investigate the potential to model aggregate traffic flows at an urban scale, and to investigate the potential to apply the same methodology to model both aggregate and individual cycle flows. Cyclist behaviour has been investigated through a questionnaire to support modelling work. The research has demonstrated that spatial analysis modelling is an effective means of representing urban scale motor traffic network, however, modifications to the model were required to achieve a correlation between modelled and measured motor traffic flow comparable to other modelling procedures. Boundary weighting was found to be effective at representing traffic crossing the boundary of an isolated urban sub-area, but was not so effective at an urban scale. Road weighting was found to be effective in improving model performance by representing traffic flows along routes according to a national classification scheme. It was demonstrated that these modelling principles could be used to represent an urban bicycle network and that the impact of the modification of infrastructure on relative flows of both cyclists and motor traffic could be accommodated. The modelling approach has the potential to be extremely useful at an early planning stage to represent changes to flows across the network. A survey of behaviour identified that cyclists modify their journey to use cycling facilities such as on-road lanes and off-road paths, or to avoid particular areas perceived to be less favourable for cyclists and that analysis indicates that it is difficult to predict (25% from survey) individual route choice. Results indicate that there were more opportunities related to route characteristics that could be influenced by infrastructure changes for occasional cyclists than for frequent/everyday cyclists.

Item Type: Thesis (PhD)
Status: Unpublished
Schools: Architecture
Subjects: G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > G Geography (General)
G Geography. Anthropology. Recreation > GE Environmental Sciences
Uncontrolled Keywords: Urban Scale Modelling Traffic Cycling Flow Spatial Analysis Cyclist Behaviour
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 30 March 2016
Last Modified: 04 Jun 2017 07:41
URI: http://orca.cf.ac.uk/id/eprint/66970

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