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The horizon effect of stock return predictability and model uncertainty on portfolio choice: UK evidence

Li, Guangjie 2009. The horizon effect of stock return predictability and model uncertainty on portfolio choice: UK evidence. [Working Paper]. Cardiff Economics Working Papers, Cardiff: Cardiff University.

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Abstract

We study how stock return’s predictability and model uncertainty affect a rational buy-and-hold investor’s decision to allocate her wealth for different lengths of investment horizons in the UK market. We consider the FTSE All-Share Index as the risky asset, and the UK Treasury bill as the risk free asset in forming the investor’s portfolio. We identify the most powerful predictors of the stock return by accounting for model uncertainty. We find that though stock return predictability is weak, it can still affect the invesor’s optimal portfolio decision over different investment horizons.

Item Type: Monograph (Working Paper)
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Business (Including Economics)
Subjects: H Social Sciences > HB Economic Theory
Publisher: Cardiff University
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 30 March 2016
Last Modified: 04 Jun 2017 08:25
URI: http://orca.cf.ac.uk/id/eprint/77817

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