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Predicting coastal morphological changes with empirical orthogonal function method

Alvarez, Fernando and Pan, Shunqi 2016. Predicting coastal morphological changes with empirical orthogonal function method. Water Science and Engineering 9 (1) , pp. 14-20. 10.1016/j.wse.2015.10.003

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Abstract

In order to improve the accuracy of prediction when using the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) method, this paper describes a novel approach for two-dimensional (2D) EOF analysis based on extrapolating both the spatial and temporal EOF components for long-term prediction of coastal morphological changes. The approach was investigated with data obtained from a process-based numerical model, COAST2D, which was applied to an idealized study site with a group of shore-parallel breakwaters. The progressive behavior of the spatial and temporal EOF components, related to bathymetric changes over a training period, was demonstrated, and EOF components were extrapolated with combined linear and exponential functions for long-term prediction. The extrapolated EOF components were then used to reconstruct bathymetric changes. The comparison of the reconstructed bathymetric changes with the modeled results from the COAST2D model illustrates that the presented approach can be effective for long-term prediction of coastal morphological changes, and extrapolating both the spatial and temporal EOF components yields better results than extrapolating only the temporal EOF component.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Engineering
Subjects: T Technology > TC Hydraulic engineering. Ocean engineering
Uncontrolled Keywords: EOF method; Coastal morphological change; Long-term prediction; Process-based numerical model; Shore-parallel breakwater
Publisher: Elsevier
ISSN: 1674-2370
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 13 April 2016
Date of Acceptance: 21 October 2015
Last Modified: 04 Jun 2017 09:00
URI: http://orca.cf.ac.uk/id/eprint/89044

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