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Flood hazard assessment for extreme flood events

Kvocka, Davor, Falconer, Roger Alexander and Bray, Michaela 2016. Flood hazard assessment for extreme flood events. Natural Hazards 84 (3) , pp. 1569-1599. 10.1007/s11069-016-2501-z

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Abstract

Climate change is expected to result in an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. In turn, this will result in more frequent occurrences of extreme flood events, such as flash flooding and large-scale river flooding. This being the case, there is a need for more accurate flood risk assessment schemes, particularly in areas prone to extreme flooding. This study investigates what type of flood hazard assessment methods should be used for assessing the flood hazard to people caused by extreme flooding. Two flood hazard assessment criteria were tested, namely: a widely used, empirically derived method, and recently introduced, physically based and experimentally calibrated method. The two selected flood hazard assessment methods were: (1) validated against experimental data, and (2) used to assess flood hazard indices for two different extreme flood events, namely: the 2010 Kostanjevica na Krki extreme river flood and the 2007 Železniki flash flood. The results obtained in this study suggest that in the areas prone to extreme flooding, the flood hazard indices should be based on using the formulae derived for a mechanics-based analysis, as these formulations consider all of the physical forces acting on a human body in floodwaters, take into account the rapid changes in the flow regime, which often occur for extreme flood events, and enable a rapid assessment of the degree of flood hazard risk in a short time period, a feature particularly important when assessing flood hazard indices for high Froude numbers flows.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Advanced Research Computing @ Cardiff (ARCCA)
Engineering
Subjects: T Technology > TA Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
Publisher: Springer Verlag
ISSN: 0921-030X
Funders: HPC Wales
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 4 August 2016
Date of Acceptance: 24 July 2016
Last Modified: 24 Jun 2019 20:23
URI: http://orca.cf.ac.uk/id/eprint/93488

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