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Complex dynamics and control of arms race

Behrens, Doris, Feichtinger, G. and Prskawetz, A. 1997. Complex dynamics and control of arms race. European Journal of Operational Research 100 (1) , pp. 192-215. 10.1016/S0377-2217(96)00018-5

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Abstract

The aim of this paper is to show that asymmetric, nonlinear armament strategies may lead to chaotic motion in a discrete-time Richardson-type model on the arms race between two rival nations. Local bifurcation analysis reveals that ‘complicated’ dynamics will only occur if neither nation has an absolute advantage over the other one with respect to its level of armament and its capability to keep up the expenditures on armament. The calculation of Lyapunov exponents supports the existence of chaos. Since transitions to chaos can be identified with transitions to war, we use the Ott-Grebogi-Yorke-algorithm to stabilize the arms race model in the chaotic regime and improve the system's performance by making very small time-dependent changes of a parameter under control.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Publication
Status: Published
Schools: Mathematics
Subjects: Q Science > QA Mathematics
Uncontrolled Keywords: Nonlinear system dynamics; Arms race; Local bifurcation theory; Controlling chaos
Publisher: Elsevier
ISSN: 0377-2217
Last Modified: 10 Oct 2017 17:13
URI: http://orca.cf.ac.uk/id/eprint/93758

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