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Achieving a technical transition from internal combustion engine vehicles to battery electric vehicles in the automotive sector in Europe: challenges and strategies

Özel, Fatih Mehmet 2016. Achieving a technical transition from internal combustion engine vehicles to battery electric vehicles in the automotive sector in Europe: challenges and strategies. PhD Thesis, Cardiff University.
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Abstract

The European Union (EU) aims to reduce overall carbon dioxide emissions at least 80% by 2050. For road transport, this involves at least a 95% reduction target for 2050, compared to 1990 levels. Most commentators believe that achieving this target requires a transition from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs) to battery electric vehicles (BEVs). However, such transition demands fundamental changes in the whole automotive value chain. This research argues that the required changes in the automotive value chain might be achieved by i) an industrial structure enabling the mass production of BEVs ii) understanding and supporting the development of newcomers that are in the majority of micro, small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) in emerging BEV sector and iii) use of target instruments by governments to accelerate the development of BEV value chain and industrial structure. Based on this strategy, three stage study was performed. This involved i) exploring the present BEV industry structure and compatible future structure ii) exploring the approach of SMEs to emerging BEV sector to understand and support these actors and iii) developing and trialling a novel framework enabling the pre-implementation analysis of putative policy measures. In each stage of the research, different methodologies were used. This included an analysis of supply chain for BEVs in North-West Europe (NWE); semi-structured in-depth interviews with SMEs throughout NWE and development and application of an “adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system” (ANFIS) based framework. This study contributes to the body of knowledge by investigating the implications of BEVs on the supply chains and exploring what competences and capacities might be needed for mass production of BEVs in Europe. Secondly, this research proposed that economic growth and emission reduction targets established in the existing economic strategy of the EU (Europe 2020 strategy) might be achieved, and a significant contribution to achieve the 2050 emission reduction target might be made by supporting SME development. Support areas for SMEs were also identified. Lastly, to support national governments in making informed decisions, an ANFIS framework providing an ex-ante impact of various innovation decisions was offered.

Item Type: Thesis (PhD)
Date Type: Publication
Status: Unpublished
Schools: Engineering
Subjects: T Technology > TJ Mechanical engineering and machinery
Uncontrolled Keywords: Electric Vehicles; Technology Transition; Automobile Industry; Automobile Value Chain; Public Policy; Technology Forecasting.
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 20 September 2016
Last Modified: 20 Jul 2017 04:57
URI: http://orca.cf.ac.uk/id/eprint/94638

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