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Population dynamics of wild rodents induce stochastic fadeouts of a zoonotic pathogen

Guzzetta, Giorgio, Tagliapietra, Valentina, Perkins, Sarah E., Hauffe, Heidi C., Poletti, Piero, Merler, Stefano and Rizzoli, Annapaola 2017. Population dynamics of wild rodents induce stochastic fadeouts of a zoonotic pathogen. Journal of Animal Ecology 86 (3) , pp. 451-459. 10.1111/1365-2656.12653

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Abstract

1. Stochastic processes play an important role in the infectious disease dynamics of wildlife,especially in species subject to large population oscillations.2. Here, we study the case of a free ranging population of yellow-necked mice (Apodemusflavicollis ) in northern Italy, where circulation of Dobrava -Belgrade hantavirus (DOBV) hasbeen detected intermittently since 2001, until an outbreak emerg ed in 2010.3. We analysed the transmission dynamics of the recent outbreak using a computationalmodel that accounts for seasonal changes of the host population and territorial behaviour.Model parameters were informed by capture-mark-recapture data collected over 14 years andlongitudinal seroprevalence data from 2010 to 2013.4. The intermittent observation of DOBV before 2010 can be interpreted as repeated stochas-tic fadeouts after multiple introductions of infectious rodents migrating from neighbouringareas. We estimated that only 20% of introductions in a na€ıve host population results in sus-tained transmission after 2 years, despite an effe ctive reproduction number well above the epi-demic threshold (mean 45, 95% credible intervals, CI: 065–158). Following the 2010outbreak, DOBV has become endemic in the study area, but we predict a constant probab ilityof about 47% per year that infection dies out, following large population drops in winter. Inthe absence of stochas tic fadeout, viral prevalence is predicted to continue its growth to anoscillating equilibrium around a value of 24% (95% CI: 3–57).5. We presented an example of invasion dynamics of a zoonotic virus where stochastic fade-out have played a major role and may induce future extinction of the endemic infection.

Item Type: Article
Date Type: Published Online
Status: Published
Schools: Biosciences
Subjects: Q Science > Q Science (General)
Uncontrolled Keywords: Dobrava-Belgrade virus; Apodemus flavicollis ; Agent Based Model; stochastic fadeout; zoonotic spillover
Publisher: Wiley-Blackwell
ISSN: 0021-8790
Date of First Compliant Deposit: 23 March 2017
Date of Acceptance: 6 December 2016
Last Modified: 25 Apr 2018 21:34
URI: http://orca.cf.ac.uk/id/eprint/99335

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