A new hybrid prediction method of ultra-short-term wind power forecasting based on EEMD-PE and LSSVM optimized by the GSA

Lu, Peng, Ye, Lin, Sun, Bohao, Zhang, Cihang, Zhao, Yongning and Teng, Jingzhu 2018. A new hybrid prediction method of ultra-short-term wind power forecasting based on EEMD-PE and LSSVM optimized by the GSA. Energies 11 (4) , -. 10.3390/en11040697

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Abstract

Wind power time series data always exhibits nonlinear and non-stationary features, making it very difficult to accurately predict. In this paper, a novel hybrid wind power time series prediction model, based on ensemble empirical mode decomposition-permutation entropy (EEMD-PE), the least squares support vector machine model (LSSVM), and gravitational search algorithm (GSA), is proposed to improve accuracy of ultra-short-term wind power forecasting. To process the data, original wind power series were decomposed by EEMD-PE techniques into a number of subsequences with obvious complexity differences. Then, a new heuristic GSA algorithm was utilized to optimize the parameters of the LSSVM. The optimized model was developed for wind power forecasting and improved regression prediction accuracy. The proposed model was validated with practical wind power generation data from the Hebei province, China. A comprehensive error metric analysis was carried out to compare the performance of our method with other approaches. The results showed that the proposed model enhanced forecasting performance compared to other benchmark models.

Item Type:	Article
Date Type:	Publication
Status:	Published
Schools:	Engineering
Publisher:	MDPI
ISSN:	1996-1073
Date of First Compliant Deposit:	6 August 2019
Date of Acceptance:	9 February 2018
Last Modified:	10 May 2023 07:00
URI:	https://orca.cardiff.ac.uk/id/eprint/124512

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